The Hazards of Certainty

When I flew as an airline pilot, we didn’t debate how certain we were that there was indeed a problem when a little red light came on—the consequences if we ignored the warning and were wrong were far, far too catastrophic, even when we were *certain* the alarm was a false one. *That* question—what are the consequences if one course of action is wrong vs the consequences if a different course of action is wrong—is as critical, if not *more* critical, than the question of certainty.

NYT article: Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/science/earth/extremely-likely-that-human-activity-is-driving-climate-change-panel-finds.html?_r=0

 

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